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"I will be sitting in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, joking that if our discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into his official residence for another conversation in the coming year.

There is rarely ever break for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, Starmer had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than normal, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

As the year commences, Starmer appears to have had a kind of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a bit of relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly seemed to have put him in better spirits than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his allies deluding themselves if they reckon his political fate are about to get better?

Leadership Questions

The grisly reality for the leader is that numerous of his colleagues believe he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and oust him this year.

However Sir Keir was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "assessed at the poll", insisting no one would take his five-year mandate from him – even if the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 could be for Labour to change leader.

"We are in the fight of our generation and I intend to be at the forefront," he said.

The Spring Test

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He sought to protest, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – in part. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should a his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally eager for things to get better. He tried to convince the interviewer, and the public, that this year would be distinct.

The economic situation would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when plans the government put in place during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He vowed to close asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't put a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western partners were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His big message is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite encountering calls from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his arguments were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his team have made mistakes, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when comments he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting clear political risks as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be comfortable with such action seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but we "simply lack the full picture at the moment".

Critics called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is likely to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has long been simmering tension in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's doing that, but his new more concrete plan to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European market – will probably elicit protests that he is going back on his pledge never to try to undo the decisions that followed Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to