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Increasing worries exist about the chance of armed conflict involving East African countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in last year that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a military clash started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on mid-September that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has shown completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two agreed to a announcement that the conflict was finished – a decision that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated again.