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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still