Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
